Two of the top scoring teams in the league square off Monday night, and you guessed it -- we are taking the over.
The Cardinals will visit Arlington, Texas, tonight and I’m expecting offense -- and so is SI Sportsbook, with the line set all the way up at 9.5 runs.
For the season, the Cardinals have scored the 10th-most runs per game (4.70) and that number has been even greater over the last month. The Cardinals have scored the fourth-most runs per game in the last 30 days (5.31).
The Rangers lead MLB in runs scored per game this season (6.48) and they have scored 6.62 runs per game across the past month of play. The Rangers have the second-best win percentage in baseball and also the greatest run differential in baseball (+155). Quite simply: they mash.
Now let’s talk starters.
The Cardinals are starting Adam Wainwright, who has not been sharp since returning from the IL last month. Wainwright’s ERA is 6.15 with an xERA all the way up at 6.48. He’s not striking batters out (bottom 4% of the league) and his fastball isn’t touching 90 mph. The Rangers will tee off.
The Rangers are going with Martin Perez, who started the season well but has come apart in recent weeks. Perez’s ERA is 4.43 with an xERA of 5.51. Much like Wainwright, he isn’t fooling anyone. The Cardinals have the ninth-best OPS in the league vs. left-handed pitchers, and Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tommy Edman all hit lefties well. The Cardinals will put up their share of offense.
Now to the bullpens. The Rangers bullpen has an ERA of 5.49 across the last month of play. The Cardinals have been middle- of-the-pack.
Games have gone over the run total 58.9% of the time for Texas this season, and games at Globe Life Field are averaging 11.37 runs per game -- second only to Coors Field in Colorado.
So, yeah. Give me the over. Way over.
The Bet: Over 9.5 runs (-110)
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