New model from Northeast Ohio researchers indicates decline in coronavirus cases in June

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CUYAHOGA COUNTY, Ohio (WJW) – A new model shows coronavirus cases will decline in June.

The data is from researchers at the Cuyahoga County Board of Health, Case Western Reserve University, and the University of Akron.

The data looks at the rate of infection from one individual to determine how contagious a virus is in a community.

Based on that data, the model shows what would happen without mitigation efforts and how the community was impacted by state health orders.

The model shows a huge drop in March when the Stay-at-Home order was issued.

Dr. Johnie Rose, MD, PhD, is an epidemiologist and an assistant professor at Case Western Reserve School of Medicine.

“Nothing about the virus has changed. This is us who have changed. This is wearing masks. This is social distancing,” Dr. Rose said Friday.

The graph indicates a few small spikes in late April, early May and mid-May.

Coronavirus in Ohio: Timeline of COVID-19 cases and state orders

Researchers used the same model to predict what will happen with the coronavirus over the remainder of June.

“We expect cases to pretty steadily decline over the remainder of the month,” Dr. Rose said.

They don’t have an outlook beyond that.

Dr. Rose says it is not a long-term trend.

The model shows without any mitigation measures, without the stay at home order, masks or social distancing, cases would have surpassed what Ohio hospitals have prepared for with surge capacity.

“What we do matters more than anything. This is a success story. We’ve been winning a lot of battles in the war against COVID, but the war is definitely not over.”

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