Biden leads President Trump by 7 points in Wisconsin: NewsNation/Emerson poll

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WISCONSIN (NewsNation Now) — A new Emerson College/NewsNation poll in the battleground state of Wisconsin shows Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a seven-point lead at 51% among likely voters, compared to President Donald Trump who is at 44%.

Five percent state they are undecided or voting for someone else.

Wisconsin is a hotly contested state where the president won a close victory four years ago.

The Emerson/NewsNation poll has a 3.4% margin of error, and sampled 823 likely voters consisting of Democratic, Republican and Independents.

Biden leads among voters under 50 by 52% to 41%, and among voters over 50, but by a smaller margin: 49% to 47%. Among those polled, Biden leads in suburban areas and urban areas. Only among those who self-reported residing in rural areas did the president have an edge, where he receives 53% of the vote compared to Biden with 42%

Spencer Kimball, the director of Emerson’s polling unit, says Biden can’t relax just yet.

“He’s just over that 50 percent mark, suggesting that there’s still room for Trump to have another surprise like he did in 2016,” Kimball noted.

Respondents were asked if they always or usually vote Republican or Democrat, or split their ticket. Among voters who usually vote Republican, 77% said they plan to vote for Trump and 21% plan to vote for Biden. Those who usually vote Democrat responded as abiding more strongly by party lines, with 87% planning to vote for Biden and 5% planning to vote for Trump.

People were also asked whether they will trust the election results. 38% said they were very confident, and 42% said they were somewhat confident in the results, no matter who wins.

Voting in person appears to be the most popular option this November among voters polled, with 45% intending to vote this way, 34% planning to vote by mail, and the remaining 21% intending to vote in-person early.

Voters also indicated the vice-presidential candidates will be important factors in their decision.

In Kenosha, Wisconsin, protests continue over the police shooting of Jacob Blake. When asked if the president should denounce the 17-year-old Illinois resident Kyle Rittenhouse who was charged with shooting three protestors, 44% of respondents said yes, 19% said no, and 37% were unsure.

The perception of political polling took a hit after polls in 2016 overestimated support for Hillary Clinton.  As a result, much of the country was surprised when Donald Trump won the election. 

The NewsNation/Emerson poll was conducted Sept. 6-8 with a sample of n=823. The poll has a credibility interval similar to the poll’s margin of error of 3.4%. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response system of landlines (552) and an online panel (271). Read more on the polling process here.

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