Impact of No El Nino, No La Nina

Posted on: 7:43 pm, November 18, 2012, by , updated on: 07:54pm, November 18, 2012

What will this 2012 winter bring?

I can tell you it will not be a repeat of last year’s mild, dry conditions.

La Niña has moved on and El Niño is not ready to move in yet.

So, as we stay in a neutral pattern we will have more chances of longer episodes of colder air and unsettled conditions, making it more favorable for snow and leaning toward normal snow amounts for 2012.

On average, Northeast Ohio can range from 40-90 inches depending on location.

In Cleveland, the 30 year average from the past 61 years is about 56 inches and, of course, much higher amounts in the snowbelt region.

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The polar jet has not settled yet, it will be pulling up and down from Canada to the Midwest bringing colder air with a few breaks in between for the next few weeks.

If the polar jet locks in place seeping through the eastern half of the nation then temperatures will stay cold for longer.

Like I explain in the video above, long-range forecasting is not that simple.

(Mobile users click here for the video.)

What’s happening in the Pacific Ocean, Canada, Greenland, and all over the world affects the way patterns shape and the way a season will play out.

Get ready to be wearing your coats more often, and hopefully you have your snow blowers working for when snow returns.

You can also check out Scott Sabol’s blog for a look at how November’s snow doesn’t predict the rest of the winter outlook.